IR Workshop – Richard Steinberg, UCLA

DateApril 10, 2017

Time3:00pm to 4:30pm

Location
4357 Bunche Hall

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Abstract:This study examines how arrests of militia leaders pursuant to international criminal warrants have affected demobilization of Rwandan militias in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Hypotheses as to causes of demobilization were derived from the literature and interviews in Eastern Congo. Models based on those hypotheses were tested against a data set of all Rwandan combatants, commanders, dependents processed through UN-operated demobilization camps in the DRC from 2003-12. The models confirm that arrests are significantly and substantially related to increased demobilization. The models also confirm other factors significantly related to the rate of demobilization, including: policies and events that increased or decreased military pressure on Rwandan militias; the UN’s mobile radio and leafleting “sensitization” campaign; and the rainy season. The findings show that decapitation by arrest may be a viable strategy for advancing peace by degrading a militia or other armed force, particularly in patronage-based militias.

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