Field:
    American politics and political methodology

Dissertation Title:
    Changing Composition and Changing Allegiance in American Elections

Committee:
    Jeff Lewis (Chair), Jim DeNardo, Mark Hansen (Statistics), Lynn Vavreck, and John Zaller

Date of Completion: June 2010

Contact Information:
    Seth Hill
    UCLA Political Science Department
    4289 Bunche Hall
    Los Angeles, California 90095-1472
    Phone: 310-825-4331
    Fax: 310-825-0778

Curriculum Vitae:
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Dissertation Summary:
    Aggregate models of election outcomes portray a stable electorate where partisan identification and economic performance largely determine vote choice. These models, however, often do not address significant variation in voter participation and preferences both within and across elections. In my dissertation, I investigate these sources of electoral change: how much of the variation in electoral outcomes can be explained by changes in the set of voters who participate, and how much by changing preferences? For example, when Republican George W. Bush loses California in 2004 but Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger wins in 2006, is it due more to a change in the set of citizens who turn out or to changing allegiance of continuing voters? Explaining electoral change has interested scholars for decades (Key 1955, 1966, Campbell 1960, Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes 1960). I merge individual turnout records with ballot data for tens of millions of registered voters to show that change in turnout explains five to seven times less electoral change than change in preference. While change in turnout does influence who wins elections, my analysis suggests that the changing minds of habitual voters are a greater contributor to electoral change.

Research Interests:
    Voting behavior, representation, turnout, partisanship, political methods.

Teaching Interests:
    American politics, public opinion and elections, voting behavior, data analysis, Congress.